SUNRISE, FLORIDA – APRIL 28: Anton Lundell #15 of the Florida Panthers celebrates after scoring a goal during the second period against the Tampa Bay Lightning during the second period in Game Four of the First Round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Amerant Bank Arena on April 28, 2025 in Sunrise, Florida. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)

The Florida Panthers are looking to eliminate the Tampa Bay Lightning, win the Battle of Florida, and advance to the Eastern Conference Semifinals.

The Panthers have been strong on both ends of the ice, and all three of their wins in this series have come by two goals or more. The home team won a game for the first time in the series, as Florida took Game 4 by a score of 4–2. The Panthers trailed 2–1 heading into the third period but responded with three unanswered goals. They carry comeback momentum and consistent defensive play into Game 5.

The Lightning are fighting to keep their season alive. While Tampa Bay is usually tough to beat at home, Florida has already done it twice in this series. The Bolts have scored two goals or fewer in three of the four games and were even shut out at home in Game 2. Tampa Bay had a lead in Game 4 but couldn't hang on. They're capable of turning things around, but they'll need to do it quickly.

Spread

Panthers +1.5 (-265)
Lightning -1.5 (+225)

Moneyline

Panthers +100
Lightning -112

Total

Over 5.5 (-108)
Under 5.5 (-106)

*The above data was collected on April 30, 2025, and may have changed since writing.

Panthers vs Lightning Betting Trends

The total has gone over in five of Florida's last six games.
Florida is 6-3 SU in its last nine games.
Florida is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games against Tampa Bay.
The total has gone over in eight of Tampa Bay's last 10 games.
Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last five games.
The total has gone over in four of Tampa Bay's last five games against Florida.

Panthers vs Lightning Injury Reports

Florida Panthers

None.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Brandon Hagel, LW — Out.
Oliver Bjorkstrand, RW — Out.

Panthers vs Lightning Predictions and Picks

The Panthers face the Lightning in Game 5 of the Battle of Florida. Florida ranks seventh in goals-against average and sits around the top 10 in special teams. In the last game, the Panthers outshot Tampa Bay 23–20 and outhit them 46–28. They went 0-for-3 on the power play but got two huge goals from defensemen just 11 seconds apart. Florida continues to capitalize on limited chances, and their strong defense is now creating quality offensive opportunities.

The Lightning rank first in scoring, fourth in goals against, and are top five in special teams. However, they've lacked consistency in this series. Tampa Bay has experienced a bit of everything: a blowout win, a blowout loss, a third-period collapse, and a shutout defeat. The Bolts are more than capable of taking care of business at home, but it starts with returning to the form that earned them those strong regular-season rankings: scoring in bunches, staying out of the penalty box, and Andrei Vasilevskiy making timely saves.

Best Bet: Tampa Bay Moneyline

Florida has clearly had the upper hand in this series, but Tampa Bay was just one period away from tying it at two games apiece. The Lightning are a bit frustrated and know they need to be more efficient on special teams and get their stars going again. The moneyline is nearly a toss-up for this game, as it will likely be a close, one-goal contest.

Michael GaraventaWriter