North Carolina Tar Heels vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Odds, Spread, and Total
We knew North Carolina would meet a few hapless teams along the path to ACC contention this year. We just didn’t imagine Notre Dame would be one of them. Notre…
We knew North Carolina would meet a few hapless teams along the path to ACC contention this year. We just didn't imagine Notre Dame would be one of them. Notre Dame has lost five out of its last six after a 9-3 start, casting the Irish as long-shot underdogs in Chapel Hill this Wednesday night at 7 p.m. EST.
What's wrong with Notre Dame in 2025-26? It's not just that the Fighting Irish have begun losing, but that the squad appears noncompetitive against ACC rivals, while falling to underdog programs with far fewer resources. Notre Dame went from falling to No. 7 Houston by just 10 points on Thanksgiving week to losing 72-69 to Purdue Fort Wayne four days before Christmas, a landmark win for the Mastodons.
Some of Las Vegas' bettors will believe that UNC, having gone on its own less-severe downturn over the past week, is about to take out its frustrations on one of the ACC's poorest teams of early 2026. But should the Tar Heels' recent problems carry over, Notre Dame could keep it a low-scoring tilt.
Spread
- Tar Heels -12 (-103)
- Fighting Irish +12 (-110)
Money line
- Tar Heels -677
- Fighting Irish +653
Total
- Over 148.5 (-109)
- Under 148.5 (-109)
Note: The above data was collected on Jan. 21, 2026, and may have changed since writing.
North Carolina Tar Heels vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Trends
- North Carolina is 6-1 in past matchups with Notre Dame.
- Betting totals have gone under in each of the last four meetings.
- UNC has not lost to an unranked visiting team since Jan. 18, 2025.
North Carolina Tar Heels vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Injury Reports
North Carolina Tar Heels
- Center Ivan Matlekovic is out with an undisclosed injury.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- Forward Kebba Njie is out with an undisclosed injury.
- Guard Markus Burton is out with an ankle injury.
- Center Tommy Ahneman is out with a knee injury.
North Carolina Tar Heels vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Predictions and Picks
If anything has taught this season's Tar Heels not to take winning for granted, it's the squad's recent 0-2 swing through California. UNC was surprised by a Stanford lineup that went 16-of-28 from beyond the arc while upsetting the Tar Heels 95-90 last Wednesday. The letdown was followed by UNC's 84-78 loss at Cal that nearly knocked Chapel Hill out of the AP Top 25. The scoring numbers of cagers like Caleb Wilson are inflated by the chaos of sloppy basketball.
UNC's defense can't help but look better against Notre Dame, a team on which Markus Burton's injury has put too much pressure on UND's junior guard Braeden Shrewsberry to carry the Irish with his 44.6% trey shooting. But the pressure of unhappy fans could serve to spark North Carolina's effort more than any bad opposition can. Tar Heel Nation is “letting (head coach Hubert) Davis and his staff have it,” says Braulio Perez of Keeping it Heel, labeling the defeat at Stanford “an inexcusable performance.”
Notre Dame's careful game plan didn't succeed at Virginia Tech, where the Irish lost 89-76 on Saturday. UNC will also run the Irish off the court, but Notre Dame will add more points than expected to the total.
