USA vs Latvia: Men’s Olympic Hockey Odds, Spread, and Total

It's time for ice hockey's biggest showdown in over a decade. Tage Thompson and the reigning world champions of Team USA begin their journey in the 2026 Winter Olympics this Thursday, bolstered by a whole new crew of NHL superstars that includes snipers Auston Matthews, Jack Eichel, and Matthew Tkachuk. The Red, White, and Blue will debut at the Unipol Dome against Latvia at 3:10 p.m. EST.

The United States has a relatively easy draw in Group C, a point lost to an NHL media which has been busy ripping Bill Guerin's player selections. It's wise to bring a dedicated checking line to Milano-Cortina, since Group C's opponents are likely to boast just one potent forward combination apiece. Germany is unproven against a field as strong as 2026's, and Denmark's playmakers will be partnered with a set of minor-league defensemen. As for Latvia, everyone's favorite international hockey Cinderella has been hampered by top-six injury problems before the 25th Winter Games could even begin.

Latvia's pros from Europe are some of the world's best finesse defenders, a perfect contingent to be led by checking forward Zemgus Girgensons of the Tampa Bay Lightning. Thursday's underdogs have lost up-and-coming sniper Eriks Mateiko for the tournament, though, while Rodrigo Abols of the Philadelphia Flyers also misses Milano-Cortina with a lower-body injury. Latvia's goalies are having weak NHL seasons, and Latvia's Sandis Vilmanis is under Team USA's skin after injuring Charlie McAvoy with a high hit in a Panthers-Bruins contest played just before the Olympic break.

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Note: The above data was collected on Feb. 12, 2026, and may have changed since writing. 

United States

Latvia 

It was Latvia that defeated Team USA for the nation's first bronze-medal finish in a World Championship in 2023. Czech league defenseman Kristians Rubins scored two consecutive goals, the second in overtime, to vanquish the Americans 4-3. But the Latvians had at least 15 of their best-choice skaters available for that tournament. Fourth-place USA hardly had any. Since then, the USA has emerged as a pricey favorite on the world stage, even before Thompson's lineup won IIHF Worlds gold last May.

The Yanks made a statement versus one of the top Canadian lineups ever assembled in 2025's 4 Nations Face-Off, scoring five total goals to Canada's four in a pair of great games. USA's blue line, led by McAvoy and the Columbus Blue Jackets' point man Zach Werenski, stood strong against the sizzling offense of Connor McDavid's team. Connor Hellebuyck of the Winnipeg Jets shined in goal. 

Adam Gretz of Bleacher Report calls Quinn Hughes of the Minnesota Wild a "total package" who will pace USA's defense corps this winter, now on board after missing last year's exhibition tourney.

Las Vegas lines on Olympic hockey can be absurd, and USA-Latvia's Over/Under line is a prime example. Team USA's defense is so good that Latvia could be held to 15-or-less shots. But the smart Latvian team knows that. They'll try for an even-strength stalemate and hope to win with a power-play goal. USA head coach Mike Sullivan would be glad about a 4-0 debut win, making the under-total-goals into an easy bet.